Toward the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below 2°C, countries are exerting efforts to achieve their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). However, it is said that existing NDC commitments are not enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, and it is necessary to set more ambitious goals and to position health as a major focus. In February 2021, a paper published in The Lancet analyzed the health co-benefits of NDCs and related policies for 2040 in nine representative countries, namely, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The paper compared the health co-benefits in two alternative scenarios. The sustainable pathways scenario is consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), whereas the health in all climate policies scenario is not only in line with the sustainable pathways scenario but also includes health as a central focus of the policies. The sustainable pathways scenario could result in 1.18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5.86 million diet-related deaths, and 1.15 million deaths due to lack as compared with the current pathways scenario. On the other hand, the scenario focused on improving health could result in further reduction of 462,000 annual deaths due to air pollution, 572,000 annual deaths related to diet, and 943,000 annual deaths due to physical inactivity.

JIRCAS actively disseminates information on the need for policy interventions that simultaneously satisfy health and sustainability, based on the knowledge gained from the evaluation activities of crop production, nutrition supply and technological development in developing countries such as Madagascar and Burkina Faso.

Reference

Hamilton I et al. (2021) The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)3024…

Contributors: IIYAMA Miyuki and SHIRATORI Sakiko (Research Strategy Office)