1509. Can Economic Development in Developing Countries Reduce Cropland Expansion? — A New Perspective on Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Action

Cropland expansion is one of the leading drivers of global biodiversity loss and is closely linked to greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. Today, croplands and pastures together occupy nearly 40% of the Earth's ice-free land surface, and continued population growth and rising food demand are expected to place further pressure on natural ecosystems through agricultural expansion.

The study analyzed long-term trends in population growth, food demand, crop yields, and agricultural trade to estimate global cropland requirements through 2050 and 2100. Under a business-as-usual scenario, cropland area in high-income countries is projected to remain stable or decline slightly, whereas low- and middle-income countries could experience substantial cropland expansion. Globally, cropland area could increase by approximately 1.27 billion hectares by the end of the century.

A key finding of the study is the role of economic development in shaping future land-use demand. Rising incomes are often associated with greater access to education, increased participation of women in the workforce, improved access to family planning, and urbanization, all of which contribute to lower population growth rates. Economic development can also support technological innovation, agricultural research, and productivity gains, leading to higher crop yields. According to the study, these factors could more than offset increases in per capita food demand, significantly reducing pressure for cropland expansion.

Under a scenario of accelerated economic development in lower-income countries, global cropland requirements could be reduced by approximately 510 million hectares by 2100 relative to current projections. This reduction would exceed the benefits expected from measures in high-income countries such as dietary shifts toward healthier consumption patterns, reductions in food waste, and lower demand for biofuel crops.

The study further examined an “Equitable Development” scenario, combining accelerated development in lower-income countries with reduced crop demand and more efficient agricultural trade in higher-income countries. Under this scenario, global cropland requirements could decline substantially. The authors argue that such an approach could simultaneously advance biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and global food security.

At the same time, the study notes that excessive dependence on international agricultural trade may increase vulnerability to supply disruptions caused by conflicts, export restrictions, or geopolitical tensions. In addition, agricultural intensification must be carefully managed to avoid unintended environmental impacts. The authors therefore emphasize the importance of integrated strategies that combine agricultural research and development, sustainable farming practices, and biodiversity conservation policies.

The findings challenge the traditional perception that economic development and environmental protection are inherently in conflict. Instead, they suggest that sustainable economic development in the Global South may itself become a powerful tool for conserving nature and mitigating climate change over the long term. Investments in agricultural research, innovation, and human capacity development could play a particularly important role in achieving both food security and biodiversity conservation goals.

Reference
Polasky, S., Nelson, E., Tilman, D. et al. Reversing the Great Degradation of Nature by Reducing Factors Related to Cropland Expansion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 123(21), e2506601123 (2026). [https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2506601123](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2506601123)

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Strategic Coordination Office