1415. World Food Price Trends, December 2025

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its World Food Price Trends report on January 9. The average for December 2025 was 124.3 points, down 0.6% from November, due to declines in the dairy, meat, and vegetable oil price indexes, outweighing increases in the cereal and sugar price indexes. This index is down 2.3% from a year ago and 22.4% from its peak in March 2022. For the full year of 2025, the average index was 127.2 points, up 5.2 points (4.3%) from the 2024 average.

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 1.7% from November. International wheat prices were boosted by renewed concerns over Black Sea wheat exports, but market pressures from oversupply remained strong, and the downward trend was further exacerbated by confirmation of bumper harvests in Argentina and Australia. In contrast, the global corn market was supported by strong export demand and strong domestic ethanol production in Brazil and the United States. Sorghum prices rose in line with corn prices, despite a slowdown in sales to China, a major sorghum importer. The FAO Rice Price Index rose 4.3%, reflecting higher prices across all rice market segments due to a combination of easing harvest pressure, improving demand, and policy support. The FAO Cereal Price Index for 2025 was 107.9 points, down 4.9% from 2024, the lowest annual average since 2020. The FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 35.2% lower in 2025 than in 2024. This reflects downward pressure on rice prices due to an excess supply of exportable rice, intense competition among exporters, and reduced purchases by some Asian importing countries.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell 0.2% from November to its lowest level in six months. This decline reflected lower global prices for soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oils, which more than offset higher palm oil prices. Global soybean oil prices fell on ample export supplies from the Americas, while increased rapeseed production in Australia and Canada put downward pressure on the rapeseed market. For sunflower oil, weak global import demand due to reduced price competitiveness led to a second consecutive month of price declines in December. Meanwhile, international palm oil prices rose slightly, supported primarily by the expected seasonal slowdown in production in Southeast Asia, outweighing the impact of higher-than-expected production and inventories in Malaysia in the second half of 2025. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 17.1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching its highest level in three years amid tight global supplies.

The FAO Meat Price Index fell 1.3% from its revised November reading, but remained 3.4% higher than the same month last year. For the full year of 2025, the FAO Meat Price Index increased 5.1% compared to 2024, supported by strong global import demand and increased market uncertainty related to animal disease outbreaks and geopolitical tensions. Global beef and lamb prices increased significantly year-on-year, driven by strong import demand and limited export supply. Meanwhile, pork prices fell due to weak global import demand, and chicken prices fell slightly due to oversupply.

The FAO Dairy Price Index fell 4.4% in December, but its 2025 average was 13.2% higher than its 2024 average, reflecting strong price increases supported by rising global import demand and limited export availability in the first half of the year.

The FAO Sugar Price Index, after three consecutive months of declines, rose 2.4% from November but remained 24.0% lower than the same month last year, mainly reflecting lower cane crushing and reduced cane use in sugar production in Brazil's key southern growing regions. However, upward pressure on world prices was muted, supported by expectations of abundant global sugar supplies this season, as well as a strong harvest and production outlook in India. For 2025 as a whole, the FAO Sugar Price Index was 17.0% lower than 2024, marking its lowest annual value since 2020.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program