1383. Ultra-Long-Term Outlook on the World’s Food Supply and Demand Through 2060

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) of Japan has published in its website “Ultra-Long-Term Outlook on the World’s Food Supply and Demand Through 2060,” which was produced using the world food model developed by JIRCAS and the National Agriculture and food Research Organization (NARO).

The development of this model and the analysis of its results were carried out under the contracted project, “Study on Forecasting Models for Global Ultra-Long-Term Food Supply and Demand Projections” implemented from FY 2022 through FY2024 by the Food Security Office, Policy Division, Minister's Secretariat, MAFF.

The objectives of this work are as follows: first, to develop a world food model capable of analyzing global food supply and demand under climate change, using climate and macro-economic forecasting data from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); second, to evaluate the effects of climate change on food production and supply in major producing countries, developing countries, and Japan; and third, to contribute to policy making related to food security.

The main points of the outlook are as follows:
(1) Production of major grains—wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans—is expected to increase 1.4 times, while production of major meats—beef, pork, and poultry—is projected to increase 1.5 times from the base period (the average from 2011 to 2020) to the forecast period (the average from 2051 to 2060). These increases in production reflect rising demand due to population growth and economic development.

(2) Net imports of major grains are expected to increase by 360–410million metric tons (MMT) in Asia and by 240–270 MMT in Africa. Meanwhile, net imports of major meats are projected to increase by 33–37 MMT in Asia and by 39 MMT in Africa.

These research results were also presented at the international symposium "International Symposium: Long-term Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand and Food Security" hosted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, held at the Yayoi Auditorium of the University of Tokyo on December 5, 2024. The symposium has now been posted on the official JIRCAS YouTube channel. The video is available in Japanese and English with audio translation.

International Symposium: Long-term Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand and Food Security 

Contributor: FURUYA Jun