On December 5, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) hosted the international symposium “Long-Term Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand and Food Security” at Yasuyo Auditorium, the University of Tokyo.
The event featured lectures and discussions by Dr. Seth Meyer, then Chief Economist of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Dr. Keith Wiebe, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The full recording of the symposium is now available on the official JIRCAS YouTube channel, with both Japanese and English interpretation.
Global food supply and demand are increasingly under pressure in the medium to long term due to factors such as global climate change, population growth, rising food prices, economic development in emerging countries, and growing demand for biofuels. For Japan, which relies heavily on imported agricultural products, understanding future global food supply and demand trends is essential for ensuring long-term food security.
To address this issue, MAFF has commissioned JIRCAS and NARO to develop projections of global food supply and demand toward 2060 based on the global food model, incorporating the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (published in FY2022). This project was conducted from FY2022 to FY2024 under the guidance of external experts.
Note: These projections estimate future global food supply and demand under certain assumptions regarding productivity improvement and technological advancement, taking into account scenarios of climate change, population growth, and economic development. The full report is available on the website of the Food Security Office, Policy Planning Division, Minister’s Secretariat, MAFF.
Global Food Supply and Demand Outlook: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (In Japanese)
During the symposium, Dr. Meyer highlighted the slowdown in productivity, including institutional factors, and stressed the need for adaptation measures. Dr. Wiebe, drawing on the results of global food model analyses focusing on developing countries, emphasized the importance of investments in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure.
In the panel discussion, participants exchanged views on the crucial role of international trade and key policy challenges to ensure stable food supply under climate change.
Opening Remarks
Keynote Speeches "Challenges and Countermeasures of Food Production under Climate Chan"
Keynote Speeches "Projected Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply and Demand using the IMPACT World Food Model"
Session 1 Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply and Demand "Yield Forecast of Major Crops in the World under Climate Change"
Session 1 Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply and Demand "World Food Supply and Demand Outlook to 2060"
