Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences | JIRCAS

“Food and Nutritional Balance” Evaluation of global food supply-demand and nutritional balance

2017-10-20

Evaluation of global food supply-demand and nutritional balance

Agricultural products are not constantly produced like industrial products. Unusual weather such as drought or flood often causes unexpected damage on crops. The fluctuation of agricultural production seems increasing recent years because of the climate change, continuous energy price change, growing demand for biofuels, and international situation like civil war or terrorism. Hence, the future global food supply is uncertain. Under the uncertainty surrounding agriculture, developing countries are particularly vulnerable as they are more likely to be lack of basic infrastructure such as road and electricity, basic facilities and capital equipment, and adequate investment.

On the demand side, current food consumption and nutrient intake through food greatly vary by region. Hunger has been decreasing worldwide; however, the regional gap is rather increasing. In developing countries, the situation is more complex; not only energy deficiency but also micronutrient deficiency and obesity emerge as major problems.

In this project, we will examine the current situation of agricultural production, food consumption, and nutrient supply. We will construct foresight model of global supply-demand considering the uncertain factors such as effect of climate change, change of crop acreage, technological innovation, and socioeconomic characteristics in order to predict the future global food supply-demand. We will also analyze the nutritional balance both globally and regionally. Furthermore, we measure and evaluate the impact of past agricultural research and development projects from medium to long-term perspectives. Through these analyses and evaluation, we aim to contribute to the development of effective strategy in agricultural research and technological innovation for global food security and nutritional improvement.

Flowchart of the Supply and Demand Model

The consumption of foods is splitted into nutritions in this model.