1132. International Symposium: Long-term Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand and Food Security

We are hosting an international symposium featuring Dr. Seth Meyer, Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Dr. Keith Wiebe, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The symposium will introduce the progress of the "Study on Prediction Models for Ultra-Long-term Global Food Supply and Demand Forecasts" initiated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) in FY2022, and will include a panel discussion to debate global food security issues.

Global food supply and demand are expected to tighten in the medium to long term due to factors such as the impact of global climate change, population growth, rising food prices, economic development in emerging countries, and increasing demand for biofuels. In this context, for Japan, which imports many agricultural products, forecasting future global food supply and demand trends is crucial for considering long-term food security strategies.

To address this, MAFF has commissioned the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) and the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) to conduct a research project. With advice from external experts, this project has been working since FY2022 on food supply and demand projections up to 2060 using a global food model, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (published in FY2022).

*Note: This forecast presents an outlook for future food supply and demand based on certain scenarios, including the impacts of global climate change, population growth, and economic growth, while making assumptions about productivity improvements and technological advancements.

Contributor: FURUYA Jun, Social Sciences Division