1320. Demographics: Key to the Development of Africa's Food Systems

The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) will be held in Yokohama this week, from August 20th to 22nd, 2025. A report by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) identifies Africa's high population growth rate as one of the key megatrends for the development of Africa's food systems.

The global food system faces overlapping crises with significant implications for current and future generations in terms of human development, climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and economic development. With 90% of Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population relying on agriculture as their primary source of income and more than 95% of agriculture dependent on rainfall, degraded agricultural soils, unpredictable rainfall, rising temperatures, extreme droughts, and declining soil carbon stocks are projected to reduce crop yields and expose Africa's poorest people to increasingly intense climate disasters.

Africa's food systems are highly vulnerable to climate change, conflict, and other external shocks, imposing significant costs on the environment and biodiversity, making the current situation unsustainable. Meanwhile, rapidly growing food demand, driven primarily by population and income growth, offers significant opportunities for transforming Africa's food systems and, ultimately, the African economy as a whole. As the global economy becomes more complex and dynamic, African countries and development partners can be more effective by better anticipating future opportunities and emerging challenges and proactively preparing for them rather than simply reacting.

For these reasons, the report identifies Africa's high population growth rate as one of the key megatrends for the development of Africa's food systems. Between 2017 and 2050, the populations of 26 African countries are projected to more than double. Over the same period, the rural population is expected to grow by 53%. As a result, Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) share of the world's population is expected to increase from one-seventh today to more than one-fifth by 2050. Just eight countries are expected to account for more than half of the projected global population growth by 2050, five of which are in Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania). In most countries, urban populations are growing faster than rural populations. Against the backdrop of these population trends, Africa's food systems are undergoing a transformation whose path, combined with growing uncertainty, remains unknown.

Rural population growth exacerbates the land scarcity faced by much of Africa's rural areas, transforms livelihood options for young people, and necessitates increased productivity on existing cropland as a primary source of sustainable agricultural growth. At the same time, rapidly growing urban areas are creating a stable source of demand for Africa's food producers and small and medium-sized agribusinesses in its agricultural food systems. Broader economic transformation, characterized primarily by rising wage rates and per capita incomes, is driving increased food demand and shifts in diets. Climate change is altering best practices on African farms and necessitating modifications to the organization of food systems and supply chains. Further global health crises and ongoing regional conflicts will lead to further economic disruption and worsening food insecurity.

Without fundamental change, Africa's food systems will further strengthen their overreliance on expanding cultivated land to produce more food, exacerbating deforestation, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and an already precarious over-reliance on food imports. Transforming to a sustainable and resilient food system requires African agriculture to become more inclusive, productive, and profitable.

Technological innovation and behavioral change are essential to achieving inclusive transformation and addressing the widening yield gap. Transforming Africa's food systems requires collaborative leadership, significant investment from both governments and the private sector, and strengthening capacities for change and adaptation. In particular, sustained technological innovation is expected to adapt production systems to climate change, ensure soil health, and ensure the sustainability of food production and distribution systems in Africa.

We will also be sharing information about these research trends on Africa at the TICAD9 JIRCAS event. We hope you will join us!

https://www.jircas.go.jp/en/program/proc/blog/20250812

(References)
AGRA. (2022). Africa Agriculture Status Report. Accelerating African Food Systems Transformation (Issue 10). Nairobi, Kenya: Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA). https://agra.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/AASR-2022.pdf
AGRA. (2022). Empowering Africa’s Food Systems for the Future (Issue 11). Nairobi, Kenya: AGRA. https://agra.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Africa-Agriculture-Status-R…