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1296. From JIRCAS Southeast Asia Liaison Office: Population of Southeast Asia

1296. From JIRCAS Southeast Asia Liaison Office: Population of Southeast Asia

July 11th is World Population Day. The 2025 edition of the United Nations World Population Estimates has not yet been released, so we have used the 2024 edition to look at the population of Southeast Asia.

The world population was expected to reach approximately 8.2 billion by mid-2024, and is projected to continue to grow for about 60 years until the second half of this century. It is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s and settle at 10.2 billion by the end of this century.

The report highlights regional differences, with some regions experiencing rapid population growth and others facing population decline. The only country in Southeast Asia whose population is already declining as of 2024 is Thailand, which has been declining since 2023 (other sources say since 2020) (Japan's decline began in 2011). A total of 63 countries and regions, including Thailand, have already reached their population peak, and this group as a whole is expected to experience a 14% population decline over the next 30 years.

Additionally, countries where the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054 include Singapore (2041), Myanmar (2050), and Vietnam (2051). This group comprises 48 countries and regions, among them Brazil, Iran, and Turkey.

Many countries in Southeast Asia will see their populations begin to decline after that, including Brunei (2056), the Philippines (2058), Indonesia (2060), Laos (2069), Malaysia (2074), East Timor (2076), and Cambodia (2079).

 

Table: Years when populations begin to decline and peak populations

Country

Year

Population (×1,000)

 

Population in 2024 (×1,000)

Thailand

2023

  71 716

 

  71 689

Singapore

2041

  6 196

 

  5 812

Myanmar

2050

  58 636

 

  54 320

Viet Nam

2051

  110 021

 

  100 675

Brunei Darussalam

2056

   521

 

   461

Philippines

2058

  135 182

 

  115 371

Indonesia

2060

  322 609

 

  282 354

Lao People's Democratic Republic

2069

  10 167

 

  7 718

Malaysia

2074

  46 391

 

  35 344

Timor-Leste

2076

  2 092

 

  1 392

Cambodia

2079

  23 388

 

  17 533

         

Japan

2011

  128 169

 

  124 071

 

 

Reference

World Population Prospects 2024

https://population.un.org/wpp/

 

Contributor: KANAMORI Norihito, Southeast Asia Liaison Office

 

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