1269. The Need for Future-Proof Crop Systems

Climate change, along with the increase in atmospheric CO2, will bring about changes in average conditions such as temperature and ground-level ozone, as well as extreme events such as droughts and floods. It will also affect productivity through crop photosynthesis and water use, impacting future food supply. At the same time, crop systems have the potential to contribute to CO2 capture and carbon storage. A review paper published in The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society called for the development of future-proof crop systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change.

By 2050-60, crops will experience a significantly different environment than today. Atmospheric CO2 is expected to reach 427 ppm in 2024 and approximately 600 ppm by 2050-60. In June 2023, the global average temperature compared to pre-industrial levels was expected to exceed 1.5°C, and by 2050-60, it is expected to rise another 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels to 2.7°C, with more extreme temperature events. In some regions, certain changes will benefit crops, but unless crops are prepared for these expected changes, they will suffer yield losses. Crop systems need to be prepared for the worst.

Why is future-proofing crop production so important? A meta-analysis of world food scenario projections indicates that the world will need 35-56% more food by 2050, even without climate change. Three global trends are driving this: increasing food waste as the proportion of the world's population living in cities increases, increasing per capita consumption of meat and dairy products, and a growing world population. Adding rising temperatures and increased droughts raises the projected maximum demand by 62%. Increasing crop losses due to extreme events (fires, heat waves, floods, extreme droughts) will increase the production capacity needed to provide sufficient food and reserves by an additional 15-20%. It is estimated that to ensure sufficient food and reserves, the yield per unit of land currently in use would need to almost double. If supply does not meet demand, the expansion of cropland and further destruction of natural habitats, especially tropical forests, will be inevitable, exacerbating climate change and the currently rapid loss of biodiversity. The number of hungry people has increased from 541 million in 2017 to 731 million in 2023, and this trend is expected to continue as long as demand growth outstrips production.

The review paper outlines many potential opportunities to adapt crops to future global changes and even use crops to remove atmospheric CO2. Many of these opportunities can only be realized by identifying the most effective genetic backgrounds, which require the transfer of genes from crop relatives or gene editing into locally adapted and accepted cultivars. Breeding and seed systems are key to realizing these opportunities.

Over the past 40 years, plant molecular biology opportunities have exploded, while public sector breeding opportunities have declined. Meanwhile, most of the efforts of a few multinational corporations with vast crop breeding capabilities have focused on short-term financial gain. Between 1980 and 2024, huge investments by multinational corporations doubled the US corn harvest, but about 80% of it is used for ethanol production or animal feed, making its contribution to global food security relatively small. Meanwhile, public sector efforts have improved sorghum yields by only 12%, and yield improvements for cassava, a staple food in many parts of Africa, have been limited, despite advances in breeding to combat losses from pests, disease, and drought.

The example of U.S. maize shows what can be achieved for other public sector crops with similar investments in molecular biology, breeding, and seed distribution systems. We also need to train more breeders, especially in countries that continue to be most affected by food insecurity, and ensure access to related high-throughput phenotyping and genotyping facilities. In addition, key biotechnologies must be deregulated more quickly and efficiently. We must urgently address these needs while there is still time.

(Reference)
Stephen P. Long. Needs and opportunities to future-proof crops and the use of crop systems to mitigate atmospheric change. The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Published:29 May 2025 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2024.0229

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program