1400. The Need for Agricultural Research Investment

A comment published in Nature presents an analysis of public and private investment trends in agricultural science over the past 40 years, pointing out that declining investment in the innovation that supports food production is one of the reasons for rising food prices.

From 1980 to 2021, the world's population grew by approximately 80% (an increase of 3.5 billion people). Thanks to agricultural science, food and other agricultural products have become more abundant during this period (though, of course, not for everyone). Approximately 96% of this production increase is due to an increase in crops, meat, milk, and other agricultural products per unit of land (the remaining 4% is due to increased land use). These productivity gains are primarily due to increases in fertilizer, seeds, machinery, and other inputs per unit of land, improvements in the quality of these inputs, and increased farm size and specialization. All of these changes have been made possible by public and private investments in agrifood research and development (agrifood R&D).

However, an analysis of public and private spending on agrifood R&D in 150 countries shows a worrying trend. Over the six-year period from 2015 to 2021, the average annual growth rate in R&D spending was approximately 1.9%, down from an average annual rate of approximately 2.7% over the 35-year period from 1980 to 2015. This is despite continued increases in demand for food and other agricultural products due to population and income growth.

It typically takes years or even decades for agrifood R&D investments to broadly benefit farmers and consumers. Therefore, slower growth or even a total decline in R&D spending will ultimately mean higher food prices and increased pressure on the natural resources that support food production over the coming decades.

For example, it takes six to ten years to develop a new wheat or soybean variety, and several more years to produce commercially viable seeds. It can then take years, or even decades, for the new variety to be widely adopted across farmers' fields. This is due to factors including a lack of economic incentives, inadequate transportation infrastructure, and poor coordination between farmers, input (seed and fertilizer) suppliers, downstream food transporters, processors, and traders. Analysis shows that in 1961, it took just 12 years to increase the global average wheat yield by 50%, but by 2022, it would take 31 years to do so. Over the same period, it would take 40 years for rice instead of 20 years, and 34 years for soybeans instead of 16 years. Today, climate change and depletion of natural resources make it increasingly difficult to maintain agricultural productivity, let alone sustain yields.

Sub-Saharan Africa, home to 21 of the world's 25 lowest-income countries, is expected to need to feed an additional 819 million people (above its current population) by 2050. However, as of 2021, the region accounted for only 3% of global agricultural and food research and development spending, and continues to rely heavily on other countries, particularly in Asia, for technology spillovers. Many technologies developed for the Asian market are unlikely to be immediately applicable in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the region's farming, transportation, processing, and food sales conditions differ significantly from those in Asia, including diverse climates, pest problems, degraded soils, poor rural infrastructure, and underdeveloped regulatory environments.

Today's middle-income countries have benefited greatly from research and development (R&D) conducted in high-income countries, where R&D once dominated. This is thanks to numerous bilateral and multilateral R&D activities, including those of the CGIAR (formerly known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research). Yet middle-income countries, currently leaders in agricultural production and research and development, are not investing commensurately in international research and development programs that enable technology transfer to today's poorest countries.

Achieving the necessary gains in agricultural productivity in the 2040s, 2050s, and beyond will require a significant and sustained increase in investment in agrifood R&D. Maximizing the impact of funds allocated to agricultural R&D requires closer coordination between public and private sector efforts. Public funding is particularly important for projects with low commercial returns but high societal value. This includes developing groundbreaking technologies and basic research to understand the genetic basis of crop resistance to pests, drought, and heat stress. It also includes projects focused on improving crop and livestock management practices, as well as projects that mitigate or better measure the negative environmental impacts of agriculture. Meanwhile, businesses are often best positioned to drive R&D that is closely linked to the commercialization of innovations. Developing better ways to manage data access and use will facilitate public-private collaboration and create opportunities for innovation.

Advances in agricultural and food technology offer numerous possibilities for more environmentally sustainable and abundant food production. Examples include genomic analysis and robotics using artificial intelligence; applications such as water management based on data from satellites, drones, and agricultural machinery; and the development of plant-based proteins. Yet governments around the world seem to take past achievements for granted, forgetting how long it takes to bring innovations to market and expand their use. To maintain current rates of growth in agricultural productivity, countries need to increase their annual investments in agrifood R&D.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program