Our World in Data, an online site that attempts to visualize various world events through a statistical dashboard, also provides interesting information on global agricultural trends. In this issue, we introduce an article on global trends in agricultural land expansion.

According to the article, After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed ‘peak agricultural land’ by Hannah Ritchie, agriculture has expanded to keep pace with population growth, farmland has expanded, carving out untouched land to produce crops and raise livestock. As a result, since the last ice age, humans have converted one-third of the world's forests and two-thirds of the world's grasslands to farmland. This trend has had a significant cost on the Earth's biodiversity including a decline of 85% in wild mammal biomass has declined over the past 50,000 years.

The article emphasized that the trend of agricultural land expansion has passed its peak in recent years and has come to an end. And this means that it is now possible to feed more people while restoring natural ecosystems.

The author explained that measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult because farmlands are not always neatly and densely planted with crops. In addition, there are many different types of land use in the world, and in some cases, it is not clear where a small piece of land is farmland, such as a garden scattered in a rural village. For this reason, researchers have used a variety of methods to estimate farmland. Although their methods vary widely, most studies and institutions agree that the trend of farmland expansion has passed its peak.

This is a milestone in the history of the planet and suggests that, if done well, future food production is possible without destroying nature and wildlife habitats as in the past.

The author also explained about a global decoupling of agricultural land and crop production, which means that feeding humanity does not necessarily have to involve the destruction of nature. On the other hand, why is it that the expansion of grazing land is coming to a head while average meat consumption is on the rise? The world is producing three times as much meat as it did in addition to 50 years ago, and during this period, pigs and chickens are increasingly being raised indoors in an intensive, grain-fed, rather than pasture-fed, manner. This brings with it the dilemma of whether deforestation-associated grazing is better or intensive feed crop production with low biodiversity is better. In fact, about half of the world's grain is currently consumed as livestock feed, and the process of conversion to crops and meat is still inefficient. Biofuels are also putting pressure on the expansion of arable land in the United States and Brazil.

However, the author warned that even if global expansion of cropland has come to a head, there is no room for resting easy. Looking around the world, some areas of agricultural land are expanding while destroying carbon-rich ecosystems in many countries. The trend is observed in arid and temperate regions where rangeland shrinkage is observed, while expansion is often rapid in tropical regions. The shift of hotspots for rangeland expansion from arid and temperate regions to the biodiversity- and carbon-rich tropics is a serious situation. Also, arable land is still expanding globally. In particular, land use continues to expand in sub-Saharan Africa and South America, where population and income growth in particular are expected to put pressure on land.

Improving crop yields and agricultural productivity in the tropics is therefore of critical importance. Failure to invest in these areas may prevent the global trend of reversal of agricultural land expansion from continuing for long. Achieving peak agricultural land expansion in all regions should be a top priority. In particular, improving agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa is one of the greatest challenges of this century.
 

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Director, Information Program)