1507. WMO Warns of Further Global Temperature Records in the Next Five Years

On 28 May 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, prepared in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s Met Office, warning that global temperatures are likely to remain at record or near-record levels over the coming five years.

According to the report, annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are projected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average, commonly used as the pre-industrial baseline. There is an estimated 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

The report further states that there is a 91% probability that global mean temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year during the forecast period. In addition, there is a 75% chance that the average temperature across the five-year period 2026–2030 will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. However, WMO emphasizes that the 1.5°C goal under the Paris Agreement refers to long-term average warming rather than temperatures in individual years. Temporary exceedances therefore do not imply that the Paris Agreement targets are no longer achievable.

The report also highlights the continued rapid warming of the Arctic. Average Arctic temperatures during the next five Northern Hemisphere winter seasons (November–March) are expected to be approximately 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, representing a warming anomaly more than three times larger than the projected global average anomaly over the same period.

Further reductions in sea-ice extent are anticipated in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. Precipitation projections suggest wetter-than-average conditions at high northern latitudes and in many tropical regions, while subtropical areas—particularly in the Southern Hemisphere—are expected to become drier. These projected patterns are broadly consistent with scientific expectations of an intensifying global water cycle under climate change.

Regionally, wetter conditions are considered more likely across the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while the Amazon Basin is projected to face an increased risk of below-average rainfall.

The report also points to a tendency toward El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, based on projected sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region. El Niño conditions are considered more likely during 2027 and 2028. Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, noted that “there is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

El Niño is known to influence weather patterns worldwide by altering atmospheric circulation and precipitation systems. Its impacts can include droughts, floods, and disruptions to agricultural production, making it an important factor for food security and water resource management.

The report underscores that global warming continues unabated and that its effects are becoming increasingly evident through rapid Arctic warming, changing precipitation patterns, and heightened climate variability. It also highlights the growing importance of both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in reducing future climate risks.

Reference
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2030, 28 May 2026. https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/wmo-global-annual-decadal-…

Contributor: Miyuki IIYAMA, Strategic Coordination Office