1265. Climate Change: Global Average Temperature Likely to Exceed 1.5°C Limit in the Next Five Years

2024 was the hottest year on record, and the heatwaves are far from over. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that global temperatures are likely to continue to rise, and there is an 80% chance that temperatures will rise even higher for at least one year between now and 2029.

The WMO estimates that the global average temperature in 2024 was between 1.34-1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). It now projects that the 20-year average temperature increase from 2015 to 2034 will be about 1.44°C higher than pre-industrial levels.

The report states that there is a staggering 86% probability that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. There is also a 1% probability that one of those years will see a temperature increase of more than 2°C.

The WMO stressed that the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target refers to a 20-year long-term average, and that threshold has not yet been breached. However, these short-term spikes in temperature increase are a sign of an accelerating climate crisis. The forecast also highlights regional impacts on precipitation, with higher-than-normal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa, Northern Europe, and South Asia. Meanwhile, droughts may persist in the Amazon region.

The situation in the Arctic is even more devastating than in other parts of the world. The average winter (November to March) temperature in the Arctic over the next five years is expected to be 2.4°C higher than the 1991-2020 average, more than 3.5 times the increase in global average temperature. Sea ice is expected to continue to shrink, especially in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to sea level rise and disruption of global weather patterns.

As the world reaches a critical juncture, climate change measures are strongly required to prevent further dangerous warming in the coming decades and limit long-term temperature increases to below 1.5°C.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program