1035. Global Average Temperature Could Exceed 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels

On June 5, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that there is an 80% chance that the global annual average temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, even temporarily. There is growing concern that the Paris Agreement, a long-term goal for decades, could also be exceeded.

According to the WMO, from 2024 to 2028, the global annual average temperature is projected to be ~1.1°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850–1900 base year, with a high probability (86%) of breaking the record for the hottest year on record for at least one year. There is also an estimated 47% probability that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5°C for the entire 2024–2028 period, which exceeds the 32% probability for 2023–2027 announced last year.

“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reportedly said. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell. And the good news is that we have control of the wheel. The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s – under the watch of leaders today.”

We are already experiencing extreme heat waves, heavy rains, droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and global warming. The global average temperature in 2023 was 1.45°C, which is believed to be a combination of the long-term effects of anthropogenic warming and the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. Currently, the El Niño phenomenon is on the way to dissipating, and the transition to the La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean has been reported. However, an upward trend in temperature is predicted over the next five years, reflecting long-term warming.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program