1455. Data Shows a Significant Acceleration of Global Warming Since 2015

A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) analyzed data after excluding known natural factors affecting global temperature, demonstrating for the first time a statistically significant and powerful acceleration in global warming.

The estimated rate of warming over the past decade varies depending on the data set, but is approximately 0.35°C per decade. By contrast, the average rate from 1970 to 2015 was just under 0.2°C per decade. This recent rate of increase is higher than that of any decade since records began in 1880.

Short-term natural fluctuations in global temperature caused by El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles can mask changes in the long-term rate of warming. In their observational data analysis, the authors used five large-scale global temperature datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5).

All datasets examined showed that global warming has accelerated since 2015 with greater than 98% statistical certainty. After correcting for the effects of El Niño and solar maximum, the exceptionally warm years of 2023 and 2024 cooled slightly, but remained the two warmest years since records began.

The study did not investigate the specific causes of the observed acceleration. However, the authors state that the results indicate that the accelerated rate of warming is generally within the bounds of current climate models.

The authors also argued that if global warming continues at the pace of the past decade, the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement could be exceeded by 2030. They emphasized the urgency of action to rapidly reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels.

(Reference)
Global warming has accelerated significantly., Geophysical Research Letters (2026) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL118804

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program