1416. World Economic Outlook 2026

According to the World Economic Outlook 2026 report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, world trade demonstrated resilience in 2025, growing by 3.8%, beating expectations despite growing policy uncertainty and rising tariffs. This expansion was driven by the frontloading of shipments at the beginning of the year and strong growth in trade in services. However, trade growth is expected to slow.

At the same time, investment growth remains sluggish in most regions due to geopolitical tensions and fiscal austerity measures. Monetary easing and targeted fiscal measures have supported investment in some economies, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have encouraged aggressive capital expenditures in some large markets. However, the report warns that even if the potential benefits of AI are realized, they are likely to be unevenly distributed, posing a risk of exacerbating existing structural inequalities.

The report also emphasizes that high prices remain a major global challenge, even amid persistent deflation. Headline inflation is projected to decline from 4.0% in 2024 to an estimated 3.4% in 2025, and further to 3.1% in 2026. While overall inflation has slowed, rising prices continue to weigh on real incomes. Unlike the synchronized rise in global inflation of the past few years, supply bottlenecks have recurred amid growing geopolitical and climate-related risks, making inflation more uneven.

Economic, geopolitical, and technological tensions are converging to significantly change the global landscape, creating new economic uncertainties and social vulnerabilities. Many developing countries remain struggling, and as a result, progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remains a long way off for much of the world.

The report emphasizes that global cooperation and decisive collective action are essential to navigate an era of trade restructuring, persistent price pressures, and climate-related shocks, at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising, policies are becoming more inward-looking, and the momentum for multilateral solutions is waning.

(Reference)
United Nations (2026). World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026. New York. https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-economic-situation-a…..
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 | DESA Publications

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program