1379. Emissions Gap in 2025

According to the "Emissions Gap Report 2025" published by the United Nations Environment Programme, global warming this century is projected to reach 2.3-2.5°C with the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and 2.8°C under current policies.

Last year's report predicted warming of 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C, respectively. However, 0.1°C of this improvement was due to a revised methodology, and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel out another 0.1°C reduction, meaning the new NDC itself has brought about little change.

Achieving the Paris Agreement's 2°C and 1.5°C targets requires annual emissions to be reduced by 35% and 55%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels by 2035. Given the scale of reductions required, the short time frame for achievement, and the challenging political climate, exceeding 1.5°C is likely, and this likelihood is expected to increase within the next decade.

The report points out that to minimize climate change risks and damage and maintain the possibility of achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, it is necessary to curb this overshoot through more rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Avoiding even small warming would reduce losses to people and ecosystems, lower costs, and lessen our reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, progress has been made on the prediction that global warming would reach 3°-3.5°C. The low-carbon technologies needed to achieve significant emissions reductions are already available. Wind and solar power development is progressing rapidly, and their deployment costs are falling. This means that the international community could accelerate climate action if it so desires.

However, achieving more rapid reductions will require overcoming a challenging geopolitical environment, significantly increasing aid to developing countries, and restructuring the international financial architecture.

(Reference)
UNEP. Emissions Gap Report 2025. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program