1134. Latest Trends in Methane Emissions

Methane is considered the second most important driver of climate change. In contrast to carbon dioxide, which is the primary focus of carbon reduction policies, methane has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime. However, due to its high global warming potential (GWP), it has contributed approximately 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times. Because methane's GWP is 80 times that of CO2 in the first 20 years, methane contributes to temperature rise in the short term. This means that effective methane reduction could be a shortcut to slowing global temperature rise in the foreseeable future. As a result, awareness of the importance of methane emissions in climate change mitigation is steadily increasing.

Countries have set targets and implemented various measures to reduce methane emissions. However, our understanding of methane emission trends and their drivers remains limited. Existing research has focused on production-based emissions (PBE), which refer to emissions produced during the production of goods and services in a specific country or region (encompassing all economic activities and sectors in the country that generate the emissions). Consumption-based emissions (CBE), which allocate emissions to countries that consume goods and services (questioning the ultimate cause of emissions), have not been sufficiently considered. While analyses of entire economic systems and supply chains, as well as sectoral analyses of agriculture, forestry, and other land-use activities that are major sources of methane emissions, provide detailed insights into emission patterns, they are considered insufficient to provide a complete picture of emission fluctuations across the entire economic system, which are affected by human activities and interactions with other sectors. In response, a study published in Nature Communications examined the latest trends in methane emissions across 120 sectors in 164 countries, covering both production and consumption.

The study calculated that global methane emissions increased from 266.4 million tonnes/year (7.5 gigatonnes/year of CO2 emissions, or Gt CO2-eq/year) in 1990 at a rate of 0.8% per year until 2002, then increased at a faster rate of 2.0% per year after 2002, reaching 329.5 Mt/yr (9.2 Gt CO2-eq/year) in 2008. After a decline following the 2009 global financial crisis, global methane emissions resumed growth at a rate of 1.1% per year, reaching 383.5 Mt/yr (10.7 Gt CO2-eq/year) in 2023. The study's results show that methane emissions have increased rapidly in recent years, albeit with some fluctuations since 2015, driven by continued economic and population growth, particularly in Asia and rapidly developing countries. This contrasts with the recent slowdown in CO2 emission growth.

Across country groups, developing countries in Asia and the Pacific have accounted for the majority of global methane PBE since the mid-1990s, increasing from 96.9 Mt/yr (36.4% of global emissions) in 1990 to 162.4 Mt/yr (42.4%) in 2023. Meanwhile, PBE from the world's second-largest developed country decreased from 74.7 Mt/yr (28.0%) in 1990 to 60.4 Mt/yr (15.8%) in 2023. PBE for other country groups have continued to increase slowly over the past few decades, reaching 79.7 Mt/yr in Africa and the Middle East (20.8% of global emissions, Africa and the Middle East), 53.5 Mt/yr in Latin America and the Caribbean (13.9%), and 27.5 Mt/yr in Eastern Europe and West Central Asia (7.2%) in 2023.

In terms of CBE, developing countries in Asia and the Pacific increased their CBE from 32.6% in 1990 (86.9 Mt/yr) to 44.1% in 2023 (169.2 Mt/yr), while developed countries decreased their CBE from 38.8% (103.5 Mt/yr) to 21.5% (82.6 Mt/yr) over the same period.

Methane emission trends differ significantly from those of CO2 emissions, in which developed countries were the leading emitters of PBE until 2011 and CBE until 2015. This is likely because CO2 emissions are primarily from fossil fuel consumption, particularly in the manufacturing and power sectors, while methane emissions are primarily from agriculture and energy extraction. Developed countries are typically highly industrialized and consume and produce a lot of industrial products, while developing countries are in the early stages of industrialization and have a higher proportion of energy extraction, mining, and agriculture in their economic structures, resulting in significant methane emissions. Therefore, developing countries, particularly those in Asia and the Pacific, need to pay more attention to reducing methane emissions.

The study also examined emissions by sector and found that agriculture and food production are the largest contributors to methane emissions globally, but that the proportion of emissions by sector has changed over time. Agriculture and food production decreased from 54% in 1990 to 47% in 2023, while oil and gas emissions decreased from 18% in 2006 to 13% in 2023. The sectoral structure of methane emissions also varies significantly across countries. For example, China and Indonesia accounted for 59.3% of global coal production in 2023, with coal and electricity production, particularly anthracite mining, being the largest sources of emissions, accounting for 35% and 56% of PBE, respectively. In contrast, Russia and Iran had high emissions from oil and gas production (33% and 57%, respectively), while India and Brazil recorded large emissions from agriculture, such as pig and cattle farming (67% and 73%, respectively).

The study further analyzed emission drivers and identified that reduced emission factors due to improved energy efficiency and advances in clean production technologies were the main determinants of emissions reductions and the achievement of strong decoupling over the observation period. Reducing methane emission factors requires cross-sectoral strategies. For example, in the energy sector, advanced sensing technologies such as thermal imaging and drones can be applied to oil and gas extraction, storage, and transportation to identify and remediate emission leaks. In the agriculture sector, improving feed formulations and incorporating additives such as oils, enzymes, and methane inhibitors into livestock feed can reduce methane production in ruminants. Biogas recovery rates can also be improved by converting compost and organic waste into energy. Rice production can also be improved through better irrigation control (e.g., intermittent irrigation) and fertilization management. In the waste management sector, strengthening landfill management by sealing landfills and installing methane recovery systems to reuse methane for power generation and heating, and promoting composting technologies can effectively reduce methane emissions from organic waste. Furthermore, wastewater treatment can be improved by introducing advanced anaerobic digestion technologies to capture methane from wastewater and use it as an energy source. 

(Reference)

Shan, Y., Tian, K., Li, R. et al. Global methane footprints, growth, and drivers 1990-2023. Nat Commun 16, 8184 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63383-5

(Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program)