1281. Latest Global Warming Indicators

According to a study on the latest global warming indicators published in Earth System Science Data, the warming observed in the 10-year period from 2015 to 2024 compared to 1850 to 1900 is 1.24 °C, of which 1.22 °C is due to human factors. Of the best estimate of observed global surface temperature in 2024 (1.52 °C), the best estimate of anthropogenic warming (1.36 °C) is at its highest level on record, and anthropogenic warming levels, combined with natural variability in the climate system associated with El Niño and Atlantic Ocean oscillations (which cause temperatures to vary naturally from year to year), have pushed global average temperature rise to record levels.

Anthropogenic warming has reached about 0.27 °C per decade (2015-2024), 0.31 °C higher than the previous decade (2005-2014). These changes are somewhat amplified by the unusually warm years of 2023 and 2024, but are broadly consistent with the rate of warming over the past few decades.

This speed of warming is occurring due to the fact that greenhouse gas emissions have reached record highs in the past decade (2014-2023), combined with a decline in the intensity of aerosol cooling. However, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the past decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on society's choices, it may be possible to track a decrease or increase in the rate of climate change.

(References)
Forster et al, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data (2025). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025

Contributor: Miyuki IIYAMA, Information Program