1038. Latest Climate Change-Related Indicators

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides credible scientific evidence for climate action negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). On the other hand, IPCC reports are published every 5-10 years, so there are concerns that there will be information gaps between cycles.　

Against this backdrop, The Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) initiative is releasing updated and revised indicators of global climate in line with the IPCC's methodology.

The paper, published June 5 in the journal Earth System Science Data, uses the methodology of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to compile a dataset to obtain estimates of the latest climate change-related indicators.　

According to the estimated indicators, in the decade from 2014 to 2023, the observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was attributed to anthropogenic origin. In 2023 alone, anthropogenic warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C compared to the 1850–1900 average. Even the best estimates were below the highest 2023 record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, suggesting that the 2023 record alone has significant fluctuations.

Anthropogenic warming has been progressing at an unprecedented rate since observations began, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C in the decade 2014–2023. This rate of increase in warming is the result of a combination of a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr⁻¹ over the past decade and a decrease in the aerosol cooling effect.

Nonetheless, the rate of increase in carbon dioxide emissions over the past decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, suggesting that it is possible to inherit the slowdown in the 2020s, which is crucial for climate action, through social choice.

Reference

Forster, P. M., et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/2625/2024/essd-16-2625-2024.html

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program