1213. Impact of climate change on food crop diversity

Climate change is threatening global food security and is already affecting the productivity of major food crops and shifting geographic areas of planting. Future projections show that rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will reduce yields of major crops, especially in low latitudes, while agriculture in temperate regions may benefit from rising average temperatures. Existing studies on the impacts of climate change have mainly focused on the world's four major crops (rice, corn, wheat, and soybean) or on aggregates of multiple crops, but the predicted rapid changes in climatic conditions may pose challenges to the adaptability of crop production, especially in tropical and subtropical regions near the equator.

A paper published in Nature Food projected geographic shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under global warming scenarios of 1.5 to 4°C and assessed the impact on potential food crop diversity. The analysis found that in low-latitude tropical and subtropical regions, even a 2°C global warming would shift 10-31% of current production outside of the climatic niche, while a 3°C warming would increase this to 20-48%. At the same time, potential food crop diversity was projected to decrease in 52% (+2°C) and 56% (+3°C) of the world's agricultural land. Meanwhile, potential diversity is expected to increase in mid- to high-latitude regions, creating opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight the large differences in adaptive capacity and vulnerability of the world's food systems across latitudes under global warming.

Mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change on food crop production and future crop diversity is crucial. In the broader context of climate change adaptation measures, climate change mitigation practices should be promoted, including the selection of climate-resilient crop varieties, optimization of management practices such as sowing dates, irrigation, and fertilization, as well as more sustainable cropland management and dietary changes.

Reference

Heikonen, S., Heino, M., Jalava, M. et al. Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes. Nat Food (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program