1196. Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production

Today is Valentine's Day. Cocoa, the main ingredient of chocolate, is produced from the bean pods of the cocoa plant. Cocoa grows under a specific range of temperature and rainfall conditions, with temperatures up to 90°F (32°C) considered optimal and thriving when the total annual rainfall is 1,500 to 2,000 mm, with a dry season of less than three months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns that exceed this range may reduce yield and quality.

Seventy percent (70%) of the world's cocoa is produced in West Africa, with Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria being the top four producers. According to Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that provides information on climate change science, anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of heat events (maximum temperatures exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit) that limit cocoa growth in cocoa-growing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. In 2024, rainfall patterns were also inconsistent, leading to poor cocoa growth.

In the future, climate change is predicted to cause frequent transitions between extremely dry and extremely wet conditions in many parts of the world, including West Africa, which could affect cocoa production. In addition to the direct impacts of changes in temperature and rainfall, the spread of pests and diseases may also affect cocoa yield and quality, threatening the continuation of cocoa production in certain regions.

Measures to adapt to climate change include developing varieties that are resistant to heat and drought, planting tall trees among the cacao plants to provide shade, and shifting production activities to future suitable areas. However, there are concerns that small-scale cacao farmers will find it difficult to implement adaptation measures, which are labor-intensive and require specialized knowledge.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program