1135. 2024 Is Expected to Be the Hottest Year in Recorded History

On November 7, the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that 2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year and the first year above 1.5°C, as summarized below. 

October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average for October.      

October 2024 was 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period during which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.   

The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.  

The average global temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024 (January to October) is 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023.  It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year.

Given that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial level, it is likewise virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, and likely that it will be more than 1.55°C above.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program