864. Recent Food Price Situation

In the World Bank's Food Security Update in September 2023, it was highlighted that food prices remained elevated in many countries during the period from May to August 2023. A significant number of countries experienced double-digit inflation, and a striking 81% of the 162 countries with available data reported that the increase in food prices exceeded the increase observed in the Consumer Price Index.

In terms of price trends for agricultural commodities, the cereal price index has generally declined since the last report on July 27, mainly due to declines in maize and wheat prices. Notably, rice prices showed an upward trend, increasing by 31% since May compared to January 2021. Corn prices, on the other hand, declined by 6% and wheat prices by 12%. Rice prices, however, showed a significant increase of 16%.

The decline in wheat prices was initially influenced by ample export supplies, before experiencing a sudden disruption caused by Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July, coupled with its attacks on Ukrainian export facilities. Conversely, despite drought conditions in regions of Argentina, Europe and North America, corn and soybean production is expected to be robust this year, leading to a rebuilding of stocks. However, India's imposition of export restrictions on non-Basmati white rice on July 23 and on Basmati rice on August 27 has led to market turbulence and significant price spikes in the rice market.

In addition, the upward trend in the price of agricultural inputs, particularly chemical fertilizers, driven by escalating fuel prices, is a cause for concern. This further exacerbates the challenges facing the agricultural sector.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Information Program)