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720. Recent Trends in World Food Price and Food Security

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The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) publishes the monthly Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin to provide detailed information on recent price trends at the global, regional, and national levels, particularly in countries where price increases have been observed.

According to the February 2023 FPMA Bulletin, the decline in international wheat prices in January 2023 was due to higher-than-expected outputs from Australia and Russia in 2022, and a short-term improvement in global supply conditions. In contrast, international maize and rice prices rose, reflecting strong demand. With regard to domestic price trends in December 2022 and January 2023, price increases were reported, although they have calmed somewhat from their 2022 peaks for countries in Southern and West African regions. Constraints to food access are projected to exacerbate already fragile social and economic conditions in several regions, especially in the Horn of Africa.

According to a World Bank blog updated on February 13, domestic prices of food have remained high worldwide., Inflation was recorded between October 2022 and January 2023 in 80-90% of low-income countries, reaching double digits in several countries. Even in high-income countries, 85.5% of countries experienced inflation.

Fertilizer prices, which reached an all-time high in nominal terms last spring, have recently fallen by 40% due to lower natural gas prices and the reopening of fertilizer plants in Europe. Nevertheless, price levels remain nearly double what they were two years ago, undoubtedly posing a challenge to fertilizer availability.

Eight factors were identified as causes for concern affecting global food security — historically high commodity prices, tight staple crop markets, the impact of the war in Ukraine on spring planting, volatility in fertilizer markets, extreme weather, global economic slowdown, food price inflation, and macroeconomic trends.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Information Program)

 

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