744. Impact of Global Food Consumption on Future Global Warming

The agriculture and food system is one of the major sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Projections and estimates of future emission trends are needed to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, but the sources of emissions from agriculture and food systems are not captured by the oversimplified method of carbon dioxide conversion.

A paper published this month in Nature Climate Change breaks down the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems by greenhouse gas and food item and, using a climate model that avoids complexity as much as possible, assesses the contribution to future warming and the benefits of mitigation measures for each individual gas and food item. The analysis was conducted to evaluate the contribution to future warming and the benefits of mitigation measures for each individual gas and food item by using a climate model that avoids complexity.

The analysis estimated that food consumption alone could increase warming by 1°C by 2100, 75% of which would come from methane emission sources (ruminant meat, dairy products, rice). The paper also showed that 55% of the projected greenhouse effect could be avoided by implementing measures such as improved production practices, healthier diets, and reduced food waste at the consumption and retail levels.

Citing existing literature, the paper states that the agricultural sector contributes about half of global anthropogenic methane emissions, two-thirds of nitrous oxide emissions, and 3% of carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, the paper notes that only a minority of countries have proposed mitigation measures in agriculture in their nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement, and calls for consensus on reductions from the food system.

Reference
Ivanovich, C.C., Sun, T., Gordon, D.R. et al. Future warming from global food consumption. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01605-8

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Information Program)