The Lancet published a paper “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenario for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the global burden of disease study” with a lower world population forecast than the estimate of the United Nations. In the reference scenario, the world population was projected to peak at 9.73 billion in 2064 and decline to 8.79 billion (6.83-1.8 billion) in 2100 based on novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration and population. The full article is available at:　

Stein Emil Vollset  et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The LANCET. July 14, 2020. 

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Research Strategy Office)