1479. Expanding Wildfires and Their Impact on Biodiversity: Risks Revealed by New Research

As global warming progresses, wildfires are increasing in both frequency and scale, becoming a major driver of accelerating biodiversity loss.

A paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change analyzes the long-term impacts of wildfires on species and provides a comprehensive picture of risks that have not been fully understood until now.

The study projects future wildfire exposure for 9,592 species affected by increasing fire activity. Under a medium warming scenario, the global burned area is expected to increase by around 9.3%, and approximately 84% of wildfire-vulnerable species are projected to face higher risk. The impacts are particularly severe in South America, where many species are expected to experience substantial increases in exposure.

However, the effects vary significantly by region. While risk increases are pronounced in South America, South Asia, and Australia, some parts of Africa may experience reduced fire impacts due to increased precipitation. This highlights a clear spatial disparity in future wildfire risk.

In addition, wildfires are projected to expand into high-latitude regions as the climate warms, posing new threats to ecosystems that have historically been less affected by fire. Fire seasons are also expected to lengthen, potentially doubling in duration in some regions.

Species characteristics also play an important role in determining vulnerability. Species with small geographic ranges, particularly those already at risk of extinction, are more likely to be affected, showing a greater increase in wildfire-related exposure. In contrast, widely distributed species tend to be less vulnerable.

The study also shows that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can significantly mitigate these risks. Lower-emission scenarios could substantially reduce the impact of wildfires on ecosystems compared with high-emission pathways.

Overall, the research demonstrates that wildfire impacts are expected to intensify and vary unevenly across regions and species. It also highlights that addressing these risks will require both targeted, region-specific conservation strategies and strong mitigation of climate change.

Reference
Yang, X., Urban, M.C., Su, B. et al., Wildfire risk for species under climate change. Nature Climate Change (2026).

Contributor: Miyuki IIYAMA, Strategic Coordination Office