1440. The Impact of Future Droughts on Staple Crops and Global Food Insecurity

By 2050, the global population is projected to reach approximately 9.8 billion people, with food demand expected to increase by 30-62%. Meanwhile, increasing drought severity casts a significant shadow over global food security. A new study published in Nature Communications quantifies the impact of future droughts on staple crops and global food insecurity in an unprecedented way.

Many previous studies have relied on statistical relationships between past drought data and yields, failing to adequately address factors such as changes in planting dates, increased fertilization, expanded irrigation, and the effects of rising CO₂ concentrations. This study's innovation lies in its use of a model that reproduces the physiological processes of crops to assess the pure impact of drought under future climate conditions. "Drought-induced production loss" in this study refers to the difference in production between a drought scenario and a non-drought scenario, holding all other factors constant; here, loss does not refer to changes in production between the present and the future.

The research team analyzed the "big four" crops—corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat—which account for approximately two-thirds of the world's calorie supply. The results suggest that drought could reduce the global average total production of the four major staple crops by approximately 0.2% to a maximum of nearly 2% between 2020 and 2050. Looking at individual crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat), the global average production loss due to drought between 2020 and 2050 was estimated to range from 0 to 3.6%.

While these figures may seem small at first glance, when the maximum production losses due to drought for the four major staple crops at the mid-century are averaged at the country level, the difference between drought and non-drought scenarios is shown to be much larger than the global average loss. Maximum production losses for the four major crops are projected to exceed 10% in 62 countries, and maximum losses are expected to exceed 20% in 24 countries. These regions correspond to the main producing regions of the four major crops, and it is suggested that in the worst-case scenario, production losses due to drought could exceed 40-50% in some regions.

The impact of drought also varies by crop type, with soybean shown to be the most vulnerable. For maize, rice, and wheat, maximum production losses by country are estimated to reach up to 76.0%, 67.3%, and 64.4%, respectively. Among the four crops, rice was the most drought-resistant, but this was due to the prevalence of flooded cultivation and its location in areas with well-developed irrigation infrastructure. This structure may change with a shift to new cultivation methods that reduce water use.

The research team also concluded that a decline in crop production does not necessarily mean a food crisis. They developed a food insecurity index that combines production decline rates, GDP per capita, population growth rate, trade dependency, food price inflation, and political instability to assess resilience to production shocks. The resulting food insecurity index identified most countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, as well as Russia and Australia as being moderate to highly vulnerable to future drought impacts. Countries most vulnerable to global food insecurity generally had a high drought impact index, as well as low to moderate GDP, high population growth projections, high inflation rates, and high political instability. In countries with low socioeconomic vulnerability, such as Australia, where drought impacts are severe, the impact of drought alone could place them in the medium to high risk category on the food insecurity index.

Regional scenarios indicated that production cuts in major soybean and corn exporters in South America could push up global market prices; production cuts in South Africa could hit neighboring export-dependent countries in Southern Africa; wheat production cuts in western Russia, one of the world's leading grain exporters, could have knock-on effects on countries in the Middle East and Africa; and predicted production cuts in Thailand, one of the world's leading rice exporters, could affect African importing countries.

The study's message is that even if the global average impact of drought appears small, the real risk lies in the "knock-on" effects that will occur in globally interconnected food markets. The impacts of climate change are not simply a matter of yields; they will have ramifications for economies, politics, and social stability. The study emphasized that the future of food security depends on climate adaptation and international cooperation, calling for investment in irrigation infrastructure, the introduction of drought-tolerant varieties, diversification of trading partners, and political and economic stability.

(Reference)
Kraklow, V.A., Paff, K., Comeau, D. et al. Impact of drought on global food security by 2050. Nat Commun 17, 1099 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67862-7

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program