1289. Earth's Energy Imbalance

Global warming is caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that disrupt the delicate balance between incoming sunlight and the radiation reflected and emitted by the Earth. This imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans, and land, as well as to the melting of the cryosphere, resulting in higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and an increase in global extreme weather.

According to a paper published in AGU Advances, the Earth's energy imbalance has been growing much faster than expected, nearly doubling in just 20 years. This is twice as much as climate model predictions. The researchers say the root cause of the discrepancy between models and observations is not fully understood at this time, but they suggest it could be due to a decline in the Earth's solar reflectance, poorly modeled sea surface temperature patterns, the representation and emission of polluting aerosol particles, or other factors.

It is still possible to reduce the Earth's energy imbalance and stabilize global warming below 2°C by rapidly phasing out the burning of fossil fuels. The researchers argue that closely monitoring and quantitatively understanding changes in the Earth's energy stock will be crucial, especially in the coming decades as countries around the world take steps to limit global warming to well below 2°C.

(Reference)
Thorsten Mauritsen et al. (2025) Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades. AGU Advances. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001636

Contributor: Miyuki IIYAMA, Information Program