1209. More Than Half of the World's Adult Population Will Be Overweight and Obese by 2050

Overweight and obesity are global epidemics, and predicting future trends is crucial for policy formulation. A study published in The Lancet examined regional and national historical trends in adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and projected future trajectories to 2050.

According to the study, between 1990 and 2021, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased at the global, regional and national levels. In 2021, an estimated 1 billion adult men and 1.1 billion adult women were overweight or obese. China has the largest number of overweight and obese adults (402 million), followed by India (180 million) and the United States (172 million). Oceania, North Africa, and the Middle East had the highest age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity, with many of these countries having adult prevalence rates above 80%. Compared to 1990, the global prevalence of obesity increased by 155.1% in men and 104.9% in women. The most rapid increase in obesity prevalence was seen in North Africa and the Greater Middle East, where age-standardized prevalence rates were more than three times higher in men and more than doubled in women. Assuming this trend continues, the total number of overweight and obese adults is projected to reach 3.8 billion by 2050, more than half of the estimated global adult population at that time.

While China, India, and the United States will continue to account for the majority of the overweight and obese global population, the super-region of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase by 254.8%. In Nigeria in particular, the number of overweight and obese adults is projected to increase to 141 million by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest overweight and obese population.

To date, no country has been successful in curbing the growing rate of overweight and obesity among adults. Without immediate and effective interventions, overweight and obesity will continue to increase worldwide. Population growth, especially in Asia and Africa, is projected to significantly increase the number of overweight and obese people, which will significantly increase the disease burden associated with obesity. Obesity is one of the most avoidable risks to current and future health, and more aggressive and targeted measures are needed to address this crisis at local, national, and global levels.

(Reference)
Ng, Marie et al. 2025. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)0035…

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program