1204. Incidence of Extreme Cold Waves in Global Warming

2023 and 2024 were the warmest years on record, but since the beginning of 2025, cold waves have hit parts of China, Europe, North America, and Japan. A paper published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science analyzed the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of record-breaking extreme cold events even under global warming, using the cold wave that hit eastern China in mid-December 2023 as an example, and assessed the future risk.

According to the analysis, the record-breaking cold in December 2023 was mainly caused by an abnormally large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, while the intensity of this phenomenon was reduced by up to 22% due to the influence of warming caused by climate change.

The attribution analysis of the study, based on climate model simulations, reveals that anthropogenic warming has already reduced the probability of occurrence and intensity of cold waves like those in 2023 by more than 92% and 1.9°C, respectively, compared to a world without human influence. Moreover, such phenomena are predicted to become even rarer and milder by the end of the century, with a 95% decrease in frequency and more than 2°C decrease in intensity in a moderate emission scenario.

However, the study also emphasizes that although extreme cold events are becoming less frequent, they have not disappeared completely. This means that even if the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is achieved, society still needs to prepare for sudden cold waves.

(Reference)
Ye, Y., Qian, C., Dai, A. et al. Attribution of a record-breaking cold event in the historically warmest year of 2023 and assessing future risks. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 14 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00886-w

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program