1128. No More Hot Air…Please!

With greenhouse gas emissions at record highs and the effects of climate change becoming more severe worldwide, the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target will not be met within a few years, and the 2°C target will not be achieved. Ahead of COP30 in Brazil in 2025, countries are expected to compile Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for submission in early 2025.

Ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air... please! called on member states at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, to collectively commit to unprecedented and ambitious targets to reduce GHG emissions.

To achieve 1.5°C at the lowest cost, emissions must be reduced by 42% by 2030 compared to 2019. To achieve 2°C, emissions must be reduced by 28% by 2030. Even with the full implementation of both unconditional and conditional NDCs, projected emissions in 2030 will only be reduced by 10%, and up to 2.6°C of warming is projected. Current conditional NDCs are projected to warm up to 2.8°C, and current policies are projected up to 3.1°C, a scenario with catastrophic consequences for humanity, the planet, and the economy. Limiting the overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target will require the large-scale and costly removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Technologically, it is possible to achieve 1.5°C, and it is expected that emissions will be drastically and quickly reduced through solar, wind, and afforestation. However, this will require ambitious NDCs, which will require a rethinking of the government-wide approach, taking steps to maximize socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, strengthening international cooperation, including reforming the international financial architecture, encouraging proactive action by the private sector, and increasing investment in climate change mitigation by at least six times.

G20 countries, especially high-emitting members, have a significant responsibility for significant emissions reduction commitments. G20 member countries accounted for 77% of emissions in 2023. The addition of African Union members to the G20 has highlighted the need to consider fairness in the sharing of responsibilities among countries, with a total emissions of 82% despite a significant increase in the number of countries. G20 members, especially the highest-emitting ones, who are at risk of not achieving their current NDCs, will need to significantly scale up their emissions reduction efforts.

Stronger international support and enhanced climate finance are essential for the equitable realization of climate change mitigation and development goals. To meet the new reduction targets, NDCs need to be well-designed, specific, and transparent.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program