1112. Global Food Price Trends for September 2024　

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its global food price trends on October 4. The value in September 2024 averaged 124.4 points, up 3% from August and the highest monthly price indicator increase since March 2022. Prices for all commodities included in the price indicator increased, ranging from 0.4% in meat prices to 10.4% in sugar prices. This figure was 2.1% higher than last year, but 22.4% lower than the all-time high in March 2022.

The grain price index rose 3.0% month-on-month to 113.5 points in September, but 10.2% lower year-on-year. After falling for three consecutive months, global wheat export prices rose in September amid concerns about severe weather in major exporters. Excessive rainfall in Canada and the EU has delayed the Canadian harvest and led to a significant downward revision of production forecasts in the EU. On the other hand, competitive price supply from the Black Sea restrained price increases. Global maize prices also increased month-on-month due to rising domestic prices in Brazil and Argentina's export offensive, as well as declining water levels in the Madeira River in Brazil and the Mississippi River in the United States. The rice price index fell 0.7% in September as trading slowed down due to new rice shipments and the decline in indica rice prices, as well as the Indian government's removal of the minimum price for basmati rice export registrations.

The vegetable oil price indicator rose 4.6% month-on-month, the highest since the beginning of 2023. All price indicators for palm oil, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed have increased. In particular, international palm oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month after production was lower than expected due to seasonal production in Southeast Asia. This reflected that soybean prices were lower than expected in the U.S. Both sunflowers and rapeseed increased slightly due to the expected tightening of supply following the expected decline in production in FY2024-25.

Dairy prices rose 3.8% month-on-month in September, reflecting strong purchase demand in response to a general increase in demand in Asia and tight supply and inventory shortages for skimmed milk powder and butter in Western Europe.

Sugar prices rose 10.4% month-over-month in September, but are still 22.7% lower than they were a year ago. The rally in September was driven by concerns about tight supply in 2024-25. In addition to the prospect of poor harvests due to drought in Brazil, concerns that the Indian government will lift restrictions on the diversion of sugarcane ethanol production have led to an increase in global prices.

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Information Program)