At COP26, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos reportedly announced his intention to fund nature restoration and food system transformation, and stressed the importance of investing in Africa in particular.

On October 26, the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) released the State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2021 - How Adaptation Can Make Africa Safer, Greener and More Prosperous in a Warming World (STA21). Here are some of the key messages.

Improvements in the food and nutrition security situation in Africa have been slow. In 2020, one in five people in Africa (note: 2.82 million out of a continental population of 13.4 million, including North Africa) faced hunger, twice as many as in the rest of the world (one in 10 on average). While Africa's agricultural sector exports (commodity crops such as tea, coffee, cocoa and flowers) are on the rise, many countries remain net importers of food, and with food demand growing at a rate of 3% annually, imports could rise from US$430 million to US$110 million by 2025. It is predicted that the import value could rise from US$430 million to US$110 million by 2025.

Climate change is expected to cause major changes in areas suitable for agriculture, and agricultural systems, food production, and import dependency could change beyond imagination. For example, under a 3°C temperature rise scenario, Africa will lose 30% of its maize and banana lands by 2050, and some estimates suggest a 60% loss in legumes. Cassava, yams, millets and sorghum are also projected to lose 15% of their suitable land. In the 2050-2100 timeframe, typical mixed cropping areas will need to be converted to pure livestock systems in the equivalent of 3% of Africa. At the same time, these pastoral systems will experience a decline in pasture quality, frequent wildfires, and water shortages. Africa's marine fisheries output is also expected to decline significantly, and access to highly nutritious animal products will be strained.

The STA21 notes that even if the Paris Agreement targets are achieved, the effects of mitigation measures will not be felt for a long time, and in the meantime, the economic costs of climate change in Africa are expected to be relatively high compared to the rest of the world, at 2-4% of GDP by 2040. The GCA indicates that the benefits of adaptation measures over the next 20 years will greatly exceed the investment costs by a factor of more than five. In particular, if action is taken now, the benefit-cost ratio could be as high as 12:1.

The report estimates that the priority areas for adaptation in the agricultural sector are research and extension, water management, infrastructure, land rehabilitation, and climate information services at US$15 billion annually, compared to $20.1 billion for climate disaster relief and recovery if no action is taken.

In many parts of Africa, agriculture accounts for as much as 30-40% of the economy, often supporting the livelihoods of more than two-thirds of the population, so the impact of climate change on agriculture will have a significant impact on the economy. Expectations are high for the development of digital agriculture and financial services.

At the same time, Africa has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world, with half of the population still living in cities, and the urban population is projected to nearly triple by 2050 due to natural increase and rural-urban migration. Furthermore, Africa has the youngest population and needs to promote youth in adaptation.

Reference
Global Center on Adaptation　 State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2021: Africa　 https://gca.org/reports/state-and-trends-in-adaptation-report-2021/　

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Director, Information Program)