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303. Likelihood of Temporarily Reaching 1.5°C Rise in Temperature Within 5 Years

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On May 27, 2021, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that the average annual temperature could temporarily reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years, based on projections (the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update) made with the UK Met Office and other collaborating organizations. In the next five years, the average annual temperature could temporarily reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It also pointed out that there is a 90 percent chance that there will be a year between 2021 and 2025 when the maximum temperature will be higher than the highest recorded in 2016. It is also likely that the high latitude regions and the Sahel will be wetter than the 1981-2010 average and the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean will increase.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise in this century to within 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Temperature rise is measured by long-term trends rather than temporary events. The current projections indicate that it is unlikely that the average annual temperature over the next five years will reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (10%), but it does indicate that the lower limit of the Paris Agreement's temperature rise control target may be reached, even temporarily.

In response to this forecast, WMO will accelerate its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, while promoting climate change adaptation and early warning measures in the health, water, agriculture and renewable energy sectors. The WMO stressed the importance of accelerating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, as well as strengthening climate change adaptation measures and early warning services in the health, water, agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

In November 2021, the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is scheduled to take place, and it will be a fork in the road as to whether or not climate change can be avoided from getting out of control.

Climate change is also high on the agenda at the upcoming summit of major countries this year. The United Nations Food System Summit, which will address the problems facing the food system from the perspective of planetary health, will also discuss the importance of climate change countermeasures in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors.

Reference
World Metrological Organization New climate predictions increase likelihood of temporarily reaching 1.5°C in next 5 years. 27 May 2021. Press Release Number: 27052021 https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-i…

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Director, Information Program)