Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Stabilizing International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change – Simulation for eight ASEAN countries –

JARQ : Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
ISSN 00213551
書誌レコードID(総合目録DB) AA0068709X
JARQ vol.50 no.3 cover

The role of agricultural investment growth in alleviating climate risks to rice production systems and rice markets was examined using a partial equilibrium model. The Rice Economy Climate Change (RECC) model covers the rice markets in 15 countries and regions. The rice yield in each economy is estimated from minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and agricultural investments. The rice area harvested is estimated from rice and wheat producer prices and precipitation. We examine how future agricultural investments will affect the world rice market. The volatility of international rice prices in the baseline is expected to increase during 2010/12 to 2030 with climate change. However, a constant increase in agricultural investments in eight ASEAN countries will contribute to reducing international rice price volatility. In particular, investments in Thailand and Vietnam are most important for stabilizing international rice prices under future climate change conditions.

作成者 Tatsuji KOIZUMI Hideki KANAMARU

partial equilibrium model

policy scenarios

land development

agricultural machinery and equipment

rice market

公開者 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
国立情報学研究所メタデータ主題語彙集(資源タイプ) Journal Article
開始ページ 267
終了ページ 284