Fluctuations in Rice Productivity Caused by Long and Heavy Rain Under Climate Change in Japan: Evidence from Panel Data Regression Analysis

JARQ : Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
ISSN 00213551
書誌レコードID(総合目録DB) AA0068709X

The incidence of extreme rain is expected to increase with climate change and affect rice productivity in Japan. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of long and heavy rain on Japanese rice total-factor productivity (TFP) by estimating causality functions. We measured rice TFP by using the TörnqvistTheil and Malmquist indexes for dependent variables and predicted, the influences of future temperature and rain on rice TFP by the causality function associated with crop models and a hydrological model based on climate projections from the global-climate model (GCM). The results initially showed no significant differences between Törnqvist-Theil and Malmquist indices in the effects of climate factors, although some differences emerged in the causality of socioeconomic factors. Second, the effects of rain were always negative, and absolute TFP elasticity against rain was lower than temperature via yield and quality, but poorly drained surface water as well as flooding reduced rice TFP by 2.5 to 4.5%. Third, changes in predicted rainfall under future climate change caused annual rice TFP to fluctuate, and an impact of rain on TFP fluctuations exceeded that of temperature via yield and quality. This is due to significant variations in annual rainfall, even though the measured elasticity against rain was low. Based on these findings, the implications for research and policy-making are discussed.


global climate model

hydrological model

Malmquist index

total factor productivity

T?nqvist-Theil index

公開者 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
国立情報学研究所メタデータ主題語彙集(資源タイプ) Journal Article
開始ページ 159
終了ページ 172
DOI 10.6090/jarq.49.159
権利 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
言語 eng