Regional Impacts of Long-term Climate Change on Rice Production and Agricultural Income: Evidence from Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

JARQ : Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly
ISSN 00213551
書誌レコードID(総合目録DB) AA0068709X

Future climate change will affect rice production, but whether these changes will be beneficial or detrimental is unclear. The present study evaluates the effect of climate change on Japanese rice production, rice price, agricultural income, and regional economies by using a recursive-dynamic regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is associated with crop-growth and crop-quality models. Simulation results demonstrate that future climate change will increase overall Japanese rice production nationwide, but that the price of rice will decrease. As a result, agricultural income will decrease, despite increased production in northern and eastern Japan, such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Kanto (including Niigata prefecture). Climate change will not benefit rice farmers in these regions. However, the western region will benefit, despite the decrease in production, and the consumer surplus in most regions will increase. This happens because rice demand is inelastic and an increase in production results in a serious decline in price, which more than offsets the effects of climate change on production. As such, the impacts of climate change are complicated and differ by region, so a CGE model can provide useful information to consider policy countermeasures.


crop-growth model

crop-quality model

recursive-dynamic regional CGE model

total factor productivity (TFP)

公開者 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
国立情報学研究所メタデータ主題語彙集(資源タイプ) Journal Article
開始ページ 173
終了ページ 185
DOI 10.6090/jarq.49.173
権利 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
言語 eng