1419. Global Risks 2026

The Global Risks Report 2026, published annually by the World Economic Forum (WEF), shows that compared to previous years' reports, environmental risks have receded in the short term, while non-environmental risks, such as geopolitical*, economic, and geoeconomic risks, have become more highly prioritized. However, environmental risks remain the most serious risk in the long-term, 10-year outlook. 

This year's survey results indicate increased short-term concerns compared to last year, with 18% of respondents selecting geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to cause a major global crisis in 2026 (up two places from last year), followed by state-based armed conflict at 14%. In the two-year outlook, the majority of environmental risks saw their rankings decline, with extreme weather events dropping from second to fourth and pollution dropping from sixth to ninth. Critical changes to Earth systems as well as biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse also dropped to seventh and fifth place, respectively. Meanwhile, over the next 10 years, environmental risks remain the most severe, led by extreme weather, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and critical change in the top three, with half of the top 10 risks being environment-related. Notably, among the specific risks surveyed, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse saw the steepest deterioration in severity score from the two-year outlook to the ten-year outlook.

Protectionism, strategic industrial policies, and governments' aggressive influence over critical supply chains signal intensifying global competition. The shift toward more inward-looking and adversarial policies is creating growing uncertainty about the future of multilateralism. As countries prioritize their own interests over collective action, urgent questions are emerging about the international community's ability to confront common challenges like climate change, global health, and economic stability, and to generate the regional growth necessary for domestic prosperity and stability.

The challenges highlighted in this survey—geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate volatility, economic uncertainty, and their collective impacts on societies—underscore both the magnitude of the risks the world faces and our shared responsibility to shape its future. The report offers hope that even in the midst of competition, countries can reshape order if they choose strategic cooperation.

*Geopolitics focuses on analyzing the current situation of how geographic factors affect national political and economic power relations and conflicts, while geoeconomics focuses on the implementation of policies related to how economic factors affect national political and economic power relations and conflicts.

(Reference)

World Economic Forum. “Global Risks Report 2026: Key Findings.” World Economic Forum, 14 Jan. 2026, https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/in-full/g…

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program