1936. World Urbanization Prospects 2025

Urbanization is one of the most significant demographic transitions in human history. The United Nations' World Urbanization Prospects 2025, released last month, uses an "urbanization index" methodology for the first time, providing comparable estimates and projections for three distinct categories—cities, towns, and rural areas—and shows that urbanization is more widespread than national statistics suggest.

10 Key Messages

1. The world is increasingly urbanized, with more people living in cities today than in towns or rural areas.

By 2025, 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people will live in cities, more than double the 20% in 1950. Over the same period, the share of the global population living in towns will fall from 40% to 36%, while the share living in rural areas will halve to just 19%. Projections show that two-thirds of global population growth between now and 2050 will occur in urban areas, with most of the remainder occurring in towns. Meanwhile, the rural population is expected to peak in the 2040s and then begin to decline.

2. The number of "megacities" (populations of over 10 million) continues to grow, with more than half of them in Asia.

The number of megacities is expected to quadruple from eight in 1975 to 33 in 2025, 19 of which are in Asia, with a projected number of megacities reaching 37 by 2050. Currently, the world's most populous city is Jakarta (Indonesia) with approximately 42 million people, followed by Dhaka (Bangladesh) with 37 million and Tokyo with 33 million. Dhaka is growing rapidly and is expected to become the world's largest city by the middle of this century. Meanwhile, Tokyo's population is declining and is projected to fall to seventh place by 2050.

3. More people live in small and medium-sized cities than in megacities, and many of these smaller settlements are growing fastest, particularly in Africa and Asia.

Of the world's 12,000 cities in 2025, 96% will have a population of less than 1 million, and 81% will have a population of less than 250,000. Many of the fastest-growing cities are these small cities, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South Asia. These small cities often lack the planning capacity and resources to manage sustainable growth and need support for basic services and land use management.

4. Global urban population growth between now and 2050 will be concentrated in seven countries.

Of the 986 million additional urban residents projected to live worldwide by 2050, more than half will be concentrated in seven countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia. Combined, these countries are expected to add more than 500 million urban residents. The ability to manage this growth sustainably will have a significant impact on global development outcomes and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

5. Urban population growth will be uneven. While most cities are growing, thousands are losing population.

Globally, more than 3,000 cities will experience population decline between 2015 and 2025. Most of these declining cities have populations under 250,000, with over one-third in China and 17% in India. These diverse transitions highlight the need for policies that address both expansion and contraction. Growing cities must prepare to serve more people, while declining cities face the challenge of maintaining services and adapting their economies.

6. Towns are home to more than one-third of humanity and are essential for sustainable development.

By 2025, towns will remain the most common residence type in 71 countries, including countries as diverse as Germany, India, Uganda, and the United States. India and China alone will have more than 1.2 billion urban dwellers, accounting for more than 40% of the world's urban population. Cities often serve as critical links between rural and urban areas, providing essential services and supporting local economies. Regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South Asia are projected to experience significant increases in urban populations by 2050. Proactive urban planning can promote balanced regional development and reduce pressure on large cities.

7. As the global rural population approaches its peak, we face unprecedented challenges.

The global rural population is expected to peak in the 2040s and then decline. By 2025, rural areas will remain the most common form of residence in 62 countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa and several European countries such as France, Poland, and Romania. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region to have experienced significant rural population growth in recent decades and is expected to account for nearly all future rural population growth. Many rural areas face increasing pressure from population aging and outmigration as young people move to urban areas. These trends highlight the need to strengthen urban-rural linkages—including transport, digital connectivity, and access to basic services—to address regional disparities and support rural resilience, which is crucial for food security and sustainability.

8. Urban expansion is outpacing population growth worldwide.

Between 1975 and 2025, the amount of urban land occupied by humans grew almost twice as fast as the global population. As a result, urban land area per capita increased from 43 square meters to 63 square meters. This expansion has been uneven across regions, with Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand having the highest per capita land use and Central and South Asia having the lowest. Notably, approximately 60% of land converted to urban use since 1970 was previously productive agricultural land. This highlights the urgency of promoting compact, efficient urban development to protect agricultural land and natural ecosystems and mitigate climate change.

9. Urbanization analysis indicates that the world is more urbanized than national statistics suggest.

Definitions of "urban" vary significantly from country to country, often based on different administrative and population criteria. Aggregating different national definitions suggests that 58% of the world's population will live in urban areas in 2025. This is significantly lower than the 81% estimated by urbanization analysis to live in cities (45%) and towns (36%) combined. This discrepancy arises because many settlements classified as "towns" (or sometimes "cities") by urbanization analysis are considered rural within their own countries, particularly in Central Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

10. Sustainable development requires integrated planning that treats cities, towns, and rural areas as interconnected and interdependent.

Cities, towns, and rural areas are fundamentally linked: approximately 60% of land converted into urban space since 1970 was previously productive agricultural land. Bridging the urban-rural gap requires coordinated investments in transport, digital connectivity, infrastructure, and essential services, as well as national urban policies that integrate housing, land use, mobility, and service delivery.

(Reference)
United Nations (2025). World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2025/TR/NO. 12. New York: United Nations. https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-urbanization-prospec…

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program