1389. Extreme Heat and Agriculture

Extreme heat is one of the most serious hazards facing agriculture. The true danger of extreme heat is not only the direct losses it causes, but also the role it plays in exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. According to a joint FAO/WMO report, extreme heat damages crops, stresses livestock, depletes fisheries, and increases the risk of wildfires. The impacts of extreme heat are exacerbated when combined with other hazards such as drought, and are predicted to worsen as global warming progresses.

These impacts directly endanger the health and productivity of agricultural workers, who are on the front lines of this crisis. Agricultural workers are approximately 35 times more likely to die from occupational heatstroke than all other workers combined. In 2021, the most recent year for which data is available, an estimated 470 billion work hours were lost globally due to extreme heat. The dual impact of health risks and productivity losses disproportionately falls on rural women, who are often more exposed to high temperatures and lack the resources to adapt. The impact of extreme heat on production is widespread across the agricultural sector. Yields of staple crops such as corn and wheat are projected to decline by up to 10% for every 1°C increase in temperature.

By 2100, under a high-emissions scenario, nearly 50% of the world's cattle could be exposed to dangerously hot conditions, resulting in annual productivity losses of nearly US$40 billion in 2005 dollars. Many aquatic ecosystems are at risk of collapse, with nearly eight in ten commercial fish stocks projected to lose biomass. Fruit and nut trees, as well as natural forests, are also exposed to production losses and are increasingly vulnerable to devastating wildfires, which, combined with extreme heat, exacerbate the damage.

With the livelihoods of billions of people at risk, building resilience is no longer an option but a necessity. Opportunities for effective adaptation exist, particularly through more predictable heat forecasts, which can enable effective risk management. However, these actions must be supported by interdisciplinary research and integrated risk governance. While building resilience is essential, ultimately, adaptation has significant limits. The only lasting solution to the growing threat of extreme heat lies in ambitious climate change mitigation measures to safeguard the future of the global agri-food system. Based on recent scientific evidence and country case studies, this report highlights the individual and compound risks posed by extreme heat and emphasizes the urgency of mitigation measures, as well as the need to strengthen the resilience and sustainability of the entire agricultural sector.

(Reference)
Highlights from the extreme heat and agriculture report: https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/436c55ae-6662-4f7e-9fac-0588db782f5e

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program