1093. International Food Security Assessment, 2024–34

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its 2024-34 International Food Security Assessment.

Compared to 2023, the food security landscape is expected to improve in 2024 due to GDP per capita growth of an average of 3.4% and international and domestic food prices for many commodity crops, including vegetable oil and wheat, sorghum, and maize.　

In 2024, it was estimated that 824.6 million people, or 19%, would not be consuming the 2,100 kilocalories per day needed to lead a healthy lifestyle in the 83 countries analyzed. Although the value was 27.5% lower than the 2023 level, the situation surrounding food security has worsened due to inflation in the consumer price index in nine countries: Syria, Iran, Laos, Egypt, Gambia, Moldova, Liberia, Bangladesh, and Haiti, and rice prices have risen in South and West Asian countries.

Food security is expected to improve significantly by 2034, driven by the prospect of an improvement in GDP per capita in the former Soviet Union countries and in South and Southeast Asia.

On average, grain demand is expected to increase by 2.4% over the next decade across the 83 countries, driven by income growth in Asia and population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, grain production is expected to grow at an annual rate of only 1.7% until 2034, so food and feed shortages in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected.

In Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, food demand is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next 10 years, from 169 million tons in 2024 to 247 million tons in 2034, with 66% of this growth expected to be due to population growth.

Reference
Cardell, L., Zereyesus, Y. A., Ajewole, K., Farris, J., Johnson, M. E., Lin, J., Valdes, C., & Zeng, 
W. (2024). International food security assessment, 2024–34 (GFA-35). U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/109853/gfa-35.pdf?v=1468.2

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki, Information Program