997. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Policy in 2023

2023 was the hottest year on record. It was also reported that the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere reached an all-time high.

On the other hand, a paper published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment on April 4, 2024, reported that despite global GHG emissions reaching an all-time high in 2023, it increased by only 0.1% from 2022, and pointed out that the upward trend in emissions may reach a plateau in the future.

According to the paper, GHG emissions in 2023 were 35.8 Gt in carbon dioxide equivalent. In 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic, GHG emissions fell sharply by 5.8% year-on-year, but increased by 5.4% and 1.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Although emissions increased in 2023, the pace of increase slowed to 0.1% over 2022, and if this trend continues, global GHG emissions are expected to reach a peak. In terms of emissions by country, India has surpassed the EU to become the world's third largest emitter, behind and China and the United States, and ahead of the EU (excluding the United Kingdom), and Russia. These five countries alone account for 64% of global emissions.

On the other hand, emissions in 2023 are equivalent to having spent the remaining 10–66.7% of the carbon budget to limit warming to below 1.5°C, which is equivalent to having only 0.5–6 more years of allowable emissions left.

Reducing GHG emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming below 1.5°C, will require a commitment by countries to international cooperation. A separate article in the same journal summarized national and international climate policies in 2023. There were some achievements in 2023, including the launch of a "loss and damage" fund to support vulnerable developing countries at COP28 in Dubai at the end of the year. However, there were also some countries that withdrew their climate commitments or continued to support fossil fuels due to domestic resistance, and there was a lack of consensus. As long as this tug-of-war continues, it will be difficult to reduce emissions by 2030. On the other hand, the growing recognition of the need for all economic sectors to transition to zero emissions has led to concrete moves away from mere goal setting and toward domestic policy formulation. The paper stressed the importance of coherence in national and international climate change policies to accelerate climate action globally in response to the 2023 experience.

 
References
Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S.J. et al. Global carbon emissions in 2023. Nat Rev Earth Environ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00532-2

Nascimento, L., Godinho, C., Kuramochi, T. et al. Climate policy in 2023. Nat Rev Earth Environ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00541-1

Contributor: IIYAMA Miyuki (Information Program)