Recent Advances in Forecasting of Rice Blast Epidemics Using Computers in Japan
Tropical agriculture research series : proceedings of a symposium on tropical agriculture researches
ISSN | 03889386 |
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書誌レコードID(総合目録DB) | AA00870529 |
本文フルテキスト
tars22-_153-162.pdf1.86 MB
Computer software for forecasting rice blast epidemics has undergone remarkable changes with the advances in computer hardware in the last decade inJapan. In the early stage of that decade, several predicting equations were proposed by either multiple regression or quantification analysis. A system for estimating favorable conditions for infection based on empirical criteria was developed. The weather data used in the system were retrieved from the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System by personal computer via telephone lines. Several simulators incorporating ecological knowledge were subsequently developed. For example, the simulator of leaf blast epidemics, a deterministic model, was originally designed for a mainframe computer, and was later improved to be easily executed on a 16 bit personal computer. It can also estimate the effectiveness of some fungicides in the progression of the disease. Another simulator dealing with panicle blast epidemics, is a stochastic model using the Monte Carlo method which is able to simulate the disease progression within a panicle and to estimate the yield losses caused by panicle blast. However, temporary values are substituted for several processes which have not yet been verified experimentally.
刊行年月日 | |
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作成者 | K. Ishiguro A. Hashimoto |
公開者 | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences |
巻 | 22 |
開始ページ | 153 |
終了ページ | 162 |
言語 | eng |