JIRCAS Working Report
Research on China’s food outlook and the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture was carried out by collaboration between China Agricultural University and JIRCAS over the past 20 years. On one side, the simulated results of China’s food balance projected to 2030 show that China’s net grain import will reach 128 million tons, and net oilseeds import, and net livestock and aquatic products will reach 84.24 million tons and 8.93 million tons, respectively. It is important to reshape China’s food security strategy for policy makers. On the other side, the climate change impacts on maize yields are quantified using statistical models with panel data from 3731 farmers' observations across nine sample villages in Hebei Province of China. The impacts of climate change and the simulated impacts on maize yields based on scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 from the global climate models of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 (MRICGCM3) were then calculated, analyzed, and explained. Based on scenarios in the 2050s, the biggest loss for maize yields per hectare for the full sample accounts for about one-tenth of the mean maize yield from 2004 to 2010, and all of the villages are impacted. Hence, it is important to help farmers adopt an adaptation strategy to tackle the risk of loss for maize yields from climate change.
|作成者||陳永福 韓昕儒 銭小平|
|関連するリソース||部分である : JIRCAS Working Report no.87|