2026-09-03
Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS)
Madagascar National Center for Applied Research on Rural Development (FOFIFA)

JIRCAS, in collaboration with the Madagascar National Center for Applied Research on Rural Development (FOFIFA), has revealed that the global fertilizer price surge led to reductions in cultivated land area, changes in income composition, and declines in consumption levels among small-scale rice farmers in Madagascar, where poverty and malnutrition remain serious challenges.

Between late 2020 and 2023, international fertilizer prices rose sharply due to factors including increasing energy prices and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Chemical fertilizers are among the most important agricultural inputs supporting global food production. If the supply of chemical fertilizers remains uncertain, it is feared that not only will food supply and demand become tighter, but farmland will need to be expanded to compensate for production volume and profits, thus increasing the environmental burden. These impacts were expected to be particularly severe in Sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries depend heavily on imported fertilizers and have large populations suffering from poverty and malnutrition.

Previous studies focused primarily on macro-level projection analysis³ using food supply and demand models. However, quantitative evidence on how the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have actually changed following the fertilizer price surge has remained limited. To address this gap, the study analyzed panel data⁴ from 550 households in 60 villages located in Madagascar's Central Highlands. By comparing conditions before and after the fertilizer price increase, researchers examined changes within the same households in terms of cultivated land area, income composition, and per capita daily consumption levels.

The results show that after fertilizer prices surged, the average cultivated area declined by approximately 18%, from 0.75 hectares to 0.61 hectare; income from crop production fell by 17%, from US$0.53 to US$0.45 per person per day; and temporary income sources, such as casual labor, increased by 11%. The impact was most pronounced on non-poor households that were above the international poverty line before the surge in fertilizer prices. After the surge in fertilizer prices, the average consumption level of these households fell below the international poverty line. By contrast, households that had already been below the international poverty line, particularly the bottom 50%, had extremely low consumption levels before the fertilizer price surge. As a result, changes in their consumption levels after the price increase were relatively limited.

These findings indicate that, contrary to concerns raised in previous studies regarding agricultural land expansion, farmers in the study area responded to higher fertilizer prices by reducing cultivated area. The results also demonstrate heightened poverty risks, reflected in increased reliance on casual labor and substantial declines in consumption among previously non-poor households. The researchers note, however, that some of these changes may also have been influenced by other factors occurring during the same period.

Overall, this study quantitatively demonstrates how rising global fertilizer prices affected cultivated land area, income structures, and consumption levels in a developing region already facing severe poverty and nutritional challenges. The findings highlight the urgent need for support measures aimed at restoring agricultural production and household consumption levels. Further research is needed to examine long-term impacts and the effectiveness of intervention measures.

The results of this research were published in the international peer-reviewed journal Discover Agriculture (Open Access) on April 20, 2026.
 

Related Information

Part of this research was supported by the JIRCAS operational grant project, "Development of Sustainable Rice Cultivation and Food Production System in Africa" and the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) project, "Breakthrough in Nutrient Use Efficiency for Rice by Genetic Improvement and Fertility Sensing Techniques in Africa: Challenges for rice production with limited soil nutrients - Endeavor to increase yield under harsh conditions," jointly implemented by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). (Principal Investigator: Dr. TSUJIMOTO Yasuhiro)

Authors

Ryosuke Ozaki, Yasuhiro Tsujimoto, Tsinjo Rapatsalahy Randriamanana (FOFIFA)

Title

Heterogeneous responses of smallholder farmers in the central highland of Madagascar to the global fertilizer price surge

Journal

Discover Agriculture
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44279-026-00583-7

Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) (Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture)

President:

HASEGAWA Toshihiro

Program Director:

FUJITA Yasunari

Research Staff:

OZAKI Ryosuke (Researcher, Social Sciences Division)
TSUJIMOTO Yasuhiro (Project Leader, Crop, Livestock and Environment)

Press Coordinator:

MARUI Junichiro (Head, Public Relations Partnership Unit)
e-mail : info-pr@jircas.go.jp