Estimation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Cowpea, an Important Crop in Semi-Arid Region of West Africa, through Yield Prediction Model
―Highlighting the dual challenge for excessive soil humidity and drought―

A collaborative research initiative involving JIRCAS, the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the University of Tokyo, and the Institute for Environmental and Agricultural Research of Burkina Faso (INERA) conducted a study on cowpea – an important protein-source and cash crop in West Africa. The research used detailed data of field trials to improve the accuracy of a yield prediction, particularly under both conditions of drought and excessive soil humidity. Cowpea yield variations until the mid-century was estimated by applying the yield prediction model to climate prediction data, such as the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for global climate change prediction and the extensive large ensemble climate simulation database (d4PDF).

The results indicate that, although drought is expected to persist in semi-arid regions of West Africa, the damage is projected to decrease. Conversely, an increase in rainfall days is anticipated, exacerbating yield reduction due to excessive soil humidity. 

Traditional yield prediction models are often based on data from crop trials conducted in regions with minimal environmental stresses, limiting their applicability primarily to developed countries. In developing regions like Africa, the lack of detailed field trial data hampers the validation and improvement of yield prediction models, creating challenges in developing models that accurately capture Africa's complex agricultural conditions and predict the impact of impending climate change on crop production.

The findings of the study, indicating an increase in rainfall in the semi-arid regions and an escalation of damage to cowpea from excessive soil humidity, will provide new insights into the impact of climate change on food production in impoverished African regions. They also serve to stimulate countermeasures such as development of new varieties tolerant not only to drought but also to excessive soil humidity.

These results were published in the international scientific journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology on November 20, 2023 (Japan time).

Authors

Iizumi, T., Iseki, K., Ikazaki, K., Sakai, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Batieno, B.J. 

Title

Increasing heavy rainfall events and associated excessive soil water threaten a protein-source legume in dry environments of West Africa

Journal

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109783

JIRCAS President　KOYAMA Osamu

Program Director：

NAKASHIMA Kazuo (Food Program)

Principal Investigators：

ISEKI Kohtaro (Biological Resources and Post-harvest Division)
IKAZAKI Kenta (Crop, Livestock and Environment Division)SAKAI Toru (Social Sciences Division)

Press Coordinator：

OMORI Keisuke (Head, Information and Public Relations Office)
Press e-mail：koho-jircas@ml.affrc.go.jp

NARO

Principal Investigator：

IIZUMI Toshichika (NARO Institute for Agro-Environmental Science)

Press Coordinator：

SUGIYAMA Megumi 
Press e-mail：niaes_kouhou@ml.affrc.go.jp

NIES

Principal Investigator：

SHIOGAMA Hideo (Earth System Division)

Press Coordinator：

Public Relations Office
Press e-mail：press@nies.go.jp

The University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator：

IMADA Yukiko (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute)

Press Coordinator：

Information Strategy Office
Press e-mail：kouhou@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp