Keynote Lecture

JIRCAS International Symposium Proceedings
Full text

This paper reviews the series of studies, from 1994 to 2007, which have evaluated the potential
effects of climate change on crop yield, food production and risk of hunger. There are two global
studies of crop yield responses and several additional estimates of production that are based on the
first of these. The studies cover three broad types of analysis: 1) effects under climate change but with
underlying socio-economic characteristics largely unspecified, 2) effects under both changes in
climate and with varying development pathways assumed to affect underlying socio-economics, and
3) effects under different policies of stabilisation of greenhouse gases. There are some conclusions
common to all studies: that climate change will generally reduce production potential and increase
risk of hunger, and that Africa is the most adversely affected region. An additionally important initial
conclusion is that pathways of sustainable economic development have a marked effect in reducing the
adverse effects on climate change.

Date of issued
Creator Martin Parry

Climate change


food supply

crop yields

food prices

risk of hunger

Publisher Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
Issue 2008
spage 21
epage 29
Rights Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
Language eng